September 4, 2026 · United States
Weekly Analysis
The full read for the week ending September 4, 2026.
PartialThis page puts the week together: the condition, the signals that support it, what complicates it, and how much confidence to place in the result.
Crude Stocks
Tightening709.4 million barrels
WTI Spot Price
Tightening$91.18
Available Supply
Tightening17,354 Mbbl/d
Refinery Demand
Tightening17,586 Mbbl/d
Supply & demand balance
TighteningTightening balance
- Crude Stocks
- 709.4 million barrels
- Tightening
- U.S. commercial crude inventories
- WTI Spot Price
- $91.18
- Tightening
- West Texas Intermediate spot price
- Available Supply
- 17,354 Mbbl/d
- Tightening
- Production + net imports
- Refinery Demand
- 17,586 Mbbl/d
- Tightening
- Refinery net crude input
- Supply & demand balance
- Tightening balance
- Tightening
- September 4, 2026 · United States
- The balance uses a simplified U.S. crude equation rather than a full refinery accounting model.
91.18
USD per barrel- Minimum
- 70.48
- Q1
- 76.27
- Median
- 82.71
- Q3
- 85.99
- Maximum
- 91.18
Current value compared with computed baseline average
WTI baseline variance
- Actual
- 91.18
- Baseline
- 80.59
- Variance
- 10.59 · 13.1%
Above reference
What this analysis uses
This analysis uses four EIA weekly series. The Balance page covers what the equation leaves out, and those limits apply here too.
One extra limit: correlation is not causation. When inventories draw down and WTI rises in the same week, that counts as agreement, not proof that one caused the other.
The analysis doesn't claim to know why prices moved.
Where to start
Start with the Balance page if you want to see the equation. Start with Inventory or Price if you want to follow one signal in depth.